Federal Revenue YTD
$2,850,000,000,000
Oct 2024 β May 2025
Budget: $5,030,000,000,00057% of year Β· 57% budget collected β
Federal Spending YTD
$4,100,000,000,000
Oct 2024 β May 2025
Budget: $6,730,000,000,00061% spent Β· 57% elapsed β Overpacing
Budget Deficit YTD
β$1,250,000,000,000
$4,794,520,548 per day
Budget deficit: $1,700,000,000,000On pace for ~$2.1T Β· $400B over budget
Interest on Debt YTD
$658,000,000,000
23% of all revenue collected
Budget est.: $950,000,000,000On track to exceed $1.13T
U.S. GDP (Annual Est.)
$28,690,000,000,000
Debt-to-GDP: ~127%
Trade Deficit (Annual)
β$918,000,000,000
Goods & services combined
Foreign-Held U.S. Debt
$8,530,000,000,000
Japan $1.1T Β· China $759B
Unfunded Liabilities (Est.)
$220,000,000,000,000+
Social Security + Medicare
β The Tipping Point Tracker
When the U.S. government's annual interest bill equals what it collects in ALL taxes, there is nothing left to pay for schools, defense, Medicare, or anything else. We track how fast we're approaching that point β using numbers that actually make sense.
π IF AMERICA WERE A HOUSEHOLD β Making $49,200/Year (= $4.92 Trillion)
Monthly Take-Home Pay
$4,100/mo
Represents all federal tax revenue
Monthly Bills (before debt)
$5,725/mo
Defense, Social Security, Medicare, etc. β already $1,625 more than income
Monthly Credit Card Interest
$940/mo
Interest on the national debt β must be paid or credit rating collapses
Monthly Shortfall
β$2,565/mo
This family charges $2,565/mo to the national credit card β every single month
Interest as % of Federal Revenue β Warning Zones
β WARNING
π΄ DANGER
π COLLAPSE
0β25% Β· Manageable
25β50% Β· Crowding out services
50β75% Β· Essential cuts required
75β100% Β· Government cannot function
β² We are at 23% β entering the Caution zone and rising fast
βοΈ
MORE than Defense
Annual interest ($1.13T) now exceeds the entire defense budget ($886B). We spend more on borrowing costs than on the U.S. military.
πΈ
Already in Primary Deficit
Even WITHOUT interest payments, the U.S. spends $950B/yr more than it earns. We borrow just to keep the lights on β before the first dollar of interest.
π
~1 in 4 by 2029
By ~2029, every $1 in 4 of your tax dollars will go purely to interest β buying nothing, funding nothing, just servicing debt.
β
Projected Milestone Years (CBO-Aligned Model)
~2029
25% Threshold β "Warning Zone"
~2036
50% Threshold β "Danger Zone"
~2048+
100% β Interest Equals Revenue
Methodology: Debt grows ~$1.8T/yr Β· Avg interest rate rises 3.1%β4.2% by 2030 as low-rate bonds mature Β· Revenue grows ~3%/yr Β· Primary Balance = Revenue minus ALL non-interest spending Β· Source: CBO-aligned projection
FY 2023 β Pre-Trump
$80,271,000,000
1.8% of federal revenue
0.29% of GDP
FY 2024 β Pre-Trump
$77,083,000,000
1.6% of federal revenue
0.27% of GDP
FY 2025 YTD β Trump Era
$87,400,000,000+
7 months YTD only
Annualized: ~$150,000,000,000
3.1% of revenue
β½ U.S. Oil & Energy β Production, Import Dependency & Fiscal Impact
π
Domestic Production
13,200,000 bbl/day
Record highs maintained Β· ~$62/bbl WTI
Annual domestic value: ~$299,000,000,000
Provides 59% of U.S. total supply
π’
Gross Imports β Import Dependent
8,500,000 bbl/day
Annual import cost: ~$193,000,000,000
β 41% of supply is foreign β U.S. is NOT energy independent
π
Consumption & Strategic Reserve
20,400,000 bbl/day
Annual cost at $62/bbl: ~$459,000,000,000
Per U.S. household: ~$3,580/year
SPR: 372M bbl Β· Only 18 days of consumption
SPR is 42% depleted from 638M bbl peak
DOE FY2025 budget: $47,200,000,000
β Strategic reserve critically low